Industry Effects Of 1 Million New Webmasters?
 

This is of course a hypothetical question. I'm curious to know what many of you think on the topic of new entrants to the biz. If 1 million newbie webmasters entered the industry today, what would be the long-term effects? More specifically, let's assume these are only submitters, ppc campaigners, and webmasters setting up new tgps and link lists.

This is a big question, I know.

Do you think there's enough room for that many new webmasters? Maybe it could be detrimental for the industry? Would it create too much free porn? Would it create any more free porn at all? Could any one of these new webmasters make even close to their current industry counterparts?

What do you think?

Gold rush is over, industry is full.

Already way too much "samples" available and it hurts sales. Already way too many people submitting their stuff to be listed so it is hard to get listed.

Go away, go home, nothing to see here.

...and has been since 2000 :D

I don't think there is as many new people getting in and making it now.

With stricter rules, No freehosts, partner accounts, visa regs, avs falling,oversaturation, ect.. It is not as easy to get started as it used to be.

So, I think it would hurt. But would get thinned down rather quickly. Because it would be that much harder on them too.

I think we can expect a rise in new entrants. This is why I ask. I think it's going to be the topic of much heated conversation over the next 2 years.

The barriers to entry are low (minimal setup costs, low knowledge requirment). Unemployment is set to rise in both the U.S and Europe. The legion of homeworkers is a steady upward trend. Popularity of boards such as this - which offer support, education, and encouragement for newbie webmasters - is on the rise. And so on.

Every organisational, cultural, and economic indicator I can bring to mind points to a rise in new entrants.

So the interesting question is how they will impact on the industry. Will it raise overal industry earnings? Or will it dilute per worker earnings right across the board?

I have my own theories but I'm more interested in what you guys think.

kristian - I'm gonna use you as an example, so bare with me for a bit :)

When did you get into the industry?

OK, cool. :)

March, 2002.

EDIT -- Sorry July, 2001 :)

Well, then my little snipit about 2000 being the year things filled up was not that far off :)

I'm too lazy to go look for exact threads on old boards, but I do remember talking about an increase of webmasters back in 2000 & what effects they'd have.

I guess my point is that for some, the rush of news webmasters is not a new thing & for others, it is :D

I think there will always be new webmasters entering the industry. But as already mentioned it is much harder to make money now. Getting listed is a bitch. TGP listings are near impossible for newbies unless they are ready to spend money. Link lists are getting to the point of TGPs now too.

More free porn? The only way that will be is with the opening of new TGPs and LL. But then they will be showing the same stuff the people that have been around for awhile are showing and they will not gain bookmarkers because of it and hence there will be no more free porn, just more places to see the same thing.

Maybe it'll frustrate surfers into buying . |bananna|

Hmmm... ok :)

One thing you haven't considered is the percentage of new surfers also rises which helps.

Newbies have always been a problem to the effectivness of the adult market.

I'm going to say something that may be a little controversial here, but it's what I think.

In my opinion, adult webmaster boards are the problem. They promote link lists and tgp's as the ultimate source of traffic. Link lists and tgp are also the easiest way to get traffic, so a newbie will see this as an easy way to promote the sponsors.

If you'll notice, many of the owners and mods on adult webmaster boards are link list and tgp owners, so naturally they'll promote the type of traffic that benefits them the most.

Now, I'm not saying that link list and tgp traffic are bad.. in fact many webmasters do very well with it.. but consider all the newbie traffic they attract that the newbie doesn't do well with.. it's a lot. You hear it every day... newbies saying they get thousands of hits with no sales. Those thousands of hits are just from one newbie.. multiply that by thousands of newbies that are in the same situation. That's a lot of free porn that's not getting paid for.

Well.. I've said my piece.. and I'm sure there will be debate on this opinion..

so... what do you all think?

Another factor to consider is the growth of the cumsumer.

If 1 million new webmasters enter the market and 1 million new sufers begin comsuming porn, will there be any negative effects on the industry?

Great minds think alike :)

I dont personally think adult webmaster boards boost the number of new entrants in any significant way. What I think they do is prolongue the lifecycle of the entrant.

Rising unemployment, growing popularity of homeworking, increased broadband access, minimum wage legislation, popularity of viewing porn itself. Thesse, I think, do more to promote "getting into" the biz. Boards such as GG&J give newbies a usually friendly home, an education, the promise of riches, and so make their stay in the biz that bit longer.

EDIT : Boards will, I think, have an indirect impact on the number of newbies, but not the number of new entrants. These boards make newbies stay longer so, obviously, there will be more newbies on the whole.

I don't see why it would, do you? The growth is healthy and even and what it should be.. what's not right is the way the industry runs itself

Let me ask you this.. if a webmaster did this on his own with no help from a webmaster board.. where would he likely get his traffic from?

I got my initial traffic from link lists and tgps. I figured out there must be money in posting porn because there was so much of it. I then found some useful articles (not posted on forums). I believe one was written by shemp. Next I found myself a sponsor.

In my case, what got me into the industry was I'd sold my business, and I wanted to work from home. In a way I was unemployed. I would probably still be here now, but the boards have provided encouragement, friends, and knowledge. The boards, however, were not the factor contributing to my entry.

Again, I think boards do more to sustain the new entrants rather than produce them. :)

ok :) but I don't think we're talking about the same thing here.. you're talking about new people entering the market.. I'm talking about new people learning the market from webmaster boards.. and since you started the thread, I'll admit I got off topic ;)

We are talking about the same thing. And I agree with you in essence :)

I think boards prolongue the stay of many webmasters in the industry. They will even give some surfers the initial idea to join. I just think they represent no significant percentage of the reason most surfers have for becoming entrants. I'm more inclined to cite unemployment or the rising popularity of homeworking coupled with that of viewing porn.

So we do agree really :)

oh yes, I absolutely agree with that point.. and that's why I said I was getting off topic.. which I was :)

Well, I don't see the average tom dick and harry getting into adult, but I could see more techie people doing it...like I did.

It helps to have some actual web design under your belt.

Actually, the amount of boards and free articles was actually a barrier to me.

I wondered WHY on earth there was so much information. So many boards..made my little noggin spin.

I posted a note on webmasterworld.com asking if anyone was in adult or something. Linkster responded via stickymail (I know forget is webmasterworld nick) and I asked him which board is most like webmasterworld for the adult industry.

He pointed me here. :)

I don't think any amount of new webmaster's in adult would effect 'us' too much.

Look at how many sites get rejected right now. Nearly 50% of all submissions are rejected on Link Lists.

With new webmasters, that number would just rise and they'll all be partners which is how it's going.

There's always room for people who truly want to dig in and learn.

My .02 :D

For everyone 1 new webmaster that starts in this industry there is probably 100 new people surfing porn... More big link lists will pop up and people submitting quality free sites and galleries will still get listed.

I just started submitting TGP galleries a couple weeks ago, so im new (in that area at least:) ). And already i've had a few of them email me partner accounts without even having to ask. It's in the owners best interest to keep the good submitters around, no matter how new they are.

TGP's and link lists will fail without good submitters, and submitters will fail without good TGP's and link lists.

I agree with Cleo.

kristian mentioned "low knowledge requirment". I have to very much disagree. You can actually start making a difference and with it serious cash when you have a lot of knowledge/experience.

Only few will really make it today and that makes this industry just like any other. There is some difference tho. Internet is an evolving medium and there's space for new ideas/solutions. Yet for that you need knowledge.

Knowledge is power.
Work smarter, not harder.

I wonder how this new "Make A $1000 A Day Being an Adult Webmaster" Spam is gonna affect things. Anyone else getting these? Every time I get one (lately it's been about 3 a day) my heart sinks a little bit. I'd like to sit that asshole down and tell him to just spam mortgages or fake penis pills like everyone else.

On the bright side, think of this...for every newbie that tries to make a quick buck, there's another one that's given up after 2 months and realized that the amount of work one has to put into this business is staggering.

To the average surfer in almost 2005, learning how to build galleries and free sites is little challenge. Anyone with enough time on their hands can acquire the requisite skills to create, submit, and earn at least a modest income. These fundaments have a low knowledge requirement.

Now, developing finese, implementing ground-breaking ideas and marketing strategies, well these are something else entirely. 5 years or more of experience would be beneficial, as would a college degree in a related discipline.

So, you don't disagree with me, since you have not fully understood what I'm saying. Sorry to be so harsh. :)

You are the classic example of how a newbie in late 2004 can arrive, learn, and begin to prosper. I have no doubt you'll achieve every one of your goals.

Some of us post-2000 folks are stubborn and just won't go away. Based on the amount earned most should have gotten out a long time ago. I compare the failure rate of this business with that of 'mom and pop' restaurants. It is extremely high. I think as many get out as get in. Often, a newbie will register a domain, get a $9.95 host, grab sponsor content and built a gallery. He is overjoyed because The Hun lists the gallery. The bubble burst when he gets one sale and discovers that his $9.95 host is wanting an additional couple of hundred from bandwidth usage. Not many survive this experience and those that do usually get out when they graduate from college.

Boards, especially this one, do not contribute to the over-saturation problem. Actually, most link list and TGP owners serve to police the industry. Face it, sponsors push the affiliates, link list and TGP owners regulate them.

As stated by Amadman, stricter rules, no freehosts, partner accounts makes it more difficult to enter this business. In my opinion, the submitter is an endangered species especially if you consider all of the hosted galleries and free sites provided by sponsors.

I agree with you on the whole. :)

I don't agree that submitters are an endangered species.

Submitters are both a source of income and content-variety for webmasters.

|shake|

Actually, had I not had the peeps of this board to guide me, I'd be fuckin' clueless.

BTW, did you have any knowledge at all on designing websites before you started?

Well, as you now know, there's designing websites and there's designing adult websites. I built my first site when I was about 22, about 7 years ago. It was for a hotel in llandudno, north wales. Favour for a friend. Did it in my spare time while at uni for a bit of a laugh. Anyway, some other hotels asked me, then a flooring contractor. Put an end to it after the flooring contractor because it was eating up my time. I'm too ashamed to show the sites :D

How true chop!

Perhaps 'endangered' was a bit strong. Sure there will always be submitters, but most will probably be 'preferred'. In my opinion the dishonest submitters continue to push link lists and TGPs toward partner accounts.

How does submitters a source of income for link list and TGPs? I agree in principle that they offer a content-variety. However, assume that you own a large link list (PR5+) and going to list say 100 free sites per day. Further, assume that there are 100 new hosted free sites available each day. Also, assume that these 100 hosted free sites follow your rules and contain fresh content. Are you going to list, the hosted free sites where you receive all of the revenue share for sign ups or are you going to list the submitters' sites where your receive no income for sign ups?

The weak dollar makes this market less appealing to many Europeans then it did BW (before W).

What do you think would happen if Tommy, GG or Shemp entered the business today? Do you think they would fail or do you think they're smart enough and motivated enough to find a way to make money? Maybe it was easier for them to start in 1997 but I bet they'd still make it to the top if they started today.

It's the same way with any maturing business. Profit margins will always narrow and it will always take more effort to make a sale. That's just what happens when businesses mature.

We will survive.

Yeah. Actually, there's a difference between being a designer and being a good online sales person.

I see a fair number of good designs that are pretty, but all the advertising is so well blended by the design that the sales effect is lost.

I fucking hate disagreeing with you Chop, because I know you're as smart as they come. :)

You asked me a question, so I'll answer. I agree with what you say in "theory". However, your hypothesis relies on the quality of freehosted sites / galleries being equal to that of prefered submissions. If this were indeed true, I would entirely agree. However, freehosted galleries / sites suffer from being over-used.

Surfer submissions provide the variety that enable tgps / link lists to differentiate themselves. Showing new and exciting content will generate far more revenue, I believe, than populating your sites with stale, over-used content that your competition is also using.

I don't want to take over this thread and reply to everything, but I totally agree with what you say.

I come from a nice country and have a nice roof over my head. One thing I like about this industry is the idea that somewhere, in some less fortunate country, a hard worker can find an industry that will feed him and his family, even now entering 2005.

Unfortunately sooo true
|brick |usuck|

True: I would be getting out completely IF I had an alternative source of income!
On the other hand I know of a lot of established webmasters who got out this or last year, simply because the earnings weren't what they used to be.

It's getting rather frustrating, and as an overseas webmaster being hit by falling US$ and falling conversions it's a double whammy!

Just lucky that I invested my adultsite earnings in real estate before our local boom started. That made me better money than I earned from porn in recent years.

I would start another business but where I live commercial rents are outragous, so setting up a shop-front business is rather hard, too! About 6 months ago I thought I was actually onto something, but then the supplier pulled the plug just before I was about to sign a lease...

Kristian, disagreeing is good. We all learn from each others' opinion.

What is it? "Opinions are lke assholes. Everyone has one"|jester|

I like that one |jester|

And some are really nice while others stink |jester|

Its interesting that you post this topic - in the last few days Ive had the TV on and noticed quite a few mainstream ads coming on about starting your own home-based internet biz - of course from the domains they list these are just the affiliate scams to get layers built up under them but if they are making enough to advertise on tv they are obviously making out pretty good.

I dont think the original premise of 1 mill new "adult" wms is a good one but I can see that happening on the non-adult side within two years - and some of that blending/overflowing over to the adult side - and it would be in my interest (if not everyones) to be ready for those newbie WMs with plenty of resources :)

I do think that anyone who has the gumption and will stick to the grindstone for a year with no exception - AND LISTENS TO ADVICE - has every reason to succeed in this biz and be making 100k at least some time in the second year. Ive seen it happen way too many times - and even recent WMs.

I also have to kind of agree with Tia - although I may be reading something into what she's saying - there are a lot of sources of adult biz income that have nothing whatsoever to do with TGP of LLs and its a lot of money sitting there - and plenty of new surfers every day to work those plans on