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I've wondered the same thing, and as best I can tell from comparing to my own stats the run about 72 hours behind, give or take 24.
Personally, I think the Alexa numbers are becoming less and less accurate. I think fewer surfers, as a percentage of the whole, are using the Alexa toolbar which is where they get much of their data. The increase in market share for FireFox is also cutting into that user base, as the toolbar is IE only.
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