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All moves to AVS systems will fail because nobody wants to be the regulating body of who is adult and who is not. The credit card companies have already said "it's not our job".
AVS systems that require burdensome paperwork or restictions that cannot be easily used by all. You cannot restrict it to require a driver's license, example, because there are adults without a drivers license. You cannot restrict it by SSN, as you can get an SSN number before you are 18.
Requiring an enabling action by a third party (asking your ISP to permit you access to adult material) would have the effect of limiting the permitted free speech (adult material) because many people would not ask to have it turned on because of embarrassment. It is the very heart of the reason why online porn is preferred by many over video rental places.
The whole AVS thing is a ruse that misleads the government into giving a long period of time for a system to be developed and implemented, and with the inherent legal battles that would come with it, is unlikely to come around the bend any time soon, IMHO.
AVS systems would also fail the "US versus the world" test, which would have the effect of moving porn offshore, where the AVS would not apply. The amount of free porn would not drop, just the country of origin. It doesn't come close to meeting the governments primary objective.
Alex
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