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I know you can't know, man, nobody can know. ;-} I was asking for your best guess.
Which sounds like the same as mine - If I had to say, my first choice would be "probably an artifact", by which I mean a peculiarity in the way the toolbar is displaying apparent pr.
Or a product of the internal linking or stucture of the domain - I didn't check to see if there was pr on the index if you typed out domain.com/index.html as opposed to just using the trailing slash.
You already mentioned possible problems with the structure of one of them - maybe leading to a canonical pages selection on googles part that took the pr off the index.
Which still leaves the question of "Is there a risk in linking to the page?".
I still end up with, if you aren't sure it was zeroed before this last pr "update", wait one more update to see if it's pr is restored. And notify the link trader so they can check their structure.
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