I'm sure shaving plays a part in some cases, but I have enough revshare rebillers that hang around for 4, 5, 6 months that I know not all surfers are downloading and bailing. From what I've read posted by program owners, it basically boils down to their average total revenue per signup. Plus, don't forget all the console sales you never get paid for, all the sales generated by email boxes on tours that you never get paid for...it's obviously going to be different for every particular sponsor, but these are some of the things that factor in.
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