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Actually - the scenario I would expect to see by the end of summer is:
An Iranian freighter off the coast of a major city is determined to have a nuclear device planted by terrorists (from Iran of course) - it goes off with limited damage and very little loss of life, the weather would have to be just right with prevailing winds headed northeasterly (assuming an east coast city), leading to martial law imposition, with a corresponding biological release in a smaller city that requires opening of the new US quarrantine(detention) centers that are currently being built by Halliburton here in the US.
The congressional response will include a new "patriot act" that includes repealing the 22nd amendment (which already has supporters in the congress since two identical bills(senate and house) were introduced in 2003 to do exactly this) and GW will be reelected by a 1 state difference in the electoral college to serve(although this is probably the worst descriptional word I could have used) a few more terms.
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