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Old 2004-01-01, 01:34 PM   #29
RawAlex
Took the hint.
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 5,597
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Remember too: The math of statistics doesn't mean that every time you get 400 clicks, you get a signup. It is over a sample long enough to determine the pattern. That is why Greenguy's stats are more useful done quarterly than monthly, as it helps to get rid of the 1 in 10 things.

From what I remember, you need anywhere from 4 to 8 times the apparent ratio (what you think it should be) to determine if the people in your sample group are in fact doing what you expect them to do. If you are looking for 1 in 400, then you need 1600-3200 clicks to be able to see if that pattern holds true.

If you had a previous month say at 1 in 150, it might take you 10,000 more hits to get the true 1 in 400 that is happening, so you might think that in month 2 your sponsor is slacking off. In reality, it is just the ratios coming back in line over a much longer period.

It is way more interesting to go to a sponsor and look at a YEAR of stats, and make choices from there. That should give you a big enough sample to really understand what you sponsor is capable of in the long run. Then you can try to impove on that :-)

Alex
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