Quote:
Originally Posted by babymaker
i dont mean to start a pissing match, just my opinion and a few facts.
|
Picture posts (now virtually unknown), webrings (never really took off in adult), toplists (floundering), directories, TGP's and links lists have been the only serious attempts in online adult to create symbiotic marketing models: ie ones in which the site operator provides an appealing surfer interface and submitters provide content in one form or another.
What they all have in common is that the way they start out is about the best it is going to get for everyone involved.
Surfers love something new, so when a business model is first introduced it attracts visitors. That generates a bandwagon effect among webmasters and the extra exposure they give the new model increases its audience further.
But lacking any attempt to broaden the appeal of the initial incarnation (in fact, quite the opposite), the audience eventually levels off and then declines. But meanwhile competition for that audience grows. Not unreasonably - from their point of view - those providing the surfer interface (eg TGP or links lists operators) want to maintain their income.
If they did this by somehow increasing the appeal of their sites or adding marketing devices which sold more effectively, all might be well. But inevitably their response has been to make it harder for the submitter to sell (the logic being that should make it easier for them to sell). They may also begin charging the submitter and/or monetizing some of the most productive spots on their sites.
How long it takes for these changes to impact depends on several factors. But sooner or later the quality of submissions must decline. As submitters are squeezed, many will drop out of the business entirely or switch to other models. Those who are left will increasingly be beginners and those able to automate (in many cases mass produce) submissions. And of course cheats. The submitter may be closed out of the picture completely (many TGP's).
The end result is that the business model in question suffers because it not only fails to develop and deliver anything new (which alone would cause its popularity to slip, since markets have a thirst for "new"): it actually delivers less of the same.
Some will agree with this analysis, some not. I firmly believe that the only reason the effects are not more obvious is that a) no completely new (legitimate) business model has appeared since the late 90's and b) the biggest operators gained enough momentum early on that they can handle quite an extended decline. I would suggest that the rising popularity of blogs, even though most will fail and to be successful they involve far more work, skills and talent than many can provide, is because so many who would more naturally be submitters (perhaps still are), are seeking alternatives. Many others have started their own TGP's, directories, etc., out of frustration as much as from dreams of empire building, but unfortunately this only speeds the decline by diluting the market further.
No, I can't provide specific answers (and if I could, I would be putting them into practise, not handing them out for free). What I do know is that taking the cake which is handed to you and then fighting over it, is inevitably destructive. For a market to prosper, it must be dynamic, constantly changing and broadening its appeal.
Certainly there are new surfers each year, but they increasingly come from parts of the world we are not yet able to monetize and as a proportion of the total surfing population, they are shrinking. Business models intended for the long-term, must constantly find ways to attract and keep experienced surfers. They cannot be based solely on playing with the income split between interface operator and content provider.