I haven't been in this biz for as long as many of you and this is just my 2 cents but I think we should also consider the dilution of this industry's revenue among all those new paysites that pop up everyday.
I'm not sure the recession can explain the conversion ratios that seem to be dropping for years now (long before the economy crisis even started). It seems more correlated to the amount/accessibilty of free porn available to surfers.
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