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This is going to be a good thread.
I think it might be a combination of both your answers. Surfers are basically more switched on these days. I would imagine many of them are practiced at joining, getting themselves off, and cancelling each night (good for signups, bad for revshare). I'd "guess" this is the main reason : clever surfers who know they can basically get access to a 40 buck site for free or only a few dollars.
There are also a lot more crappy paysites than in the past. I expect some surfers will leginitimately cancel because the paysite did not live up to expectations. Though I think the incidence of this is probably a LOT less than the first reason.
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