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Old 2004-11-02, 06:20 PM   #1
Bill
Selling porn allows me to stay in a constant state of Bliss - ain't that a trip!
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 3,914
Now, in the betting pools, Kerry projected winner 71 to 28!

Damn, I lost the copy I had of this, but this gist is, from Bloomberg, that those big betting pools that had been favoring Bush yesterday at 57 to 43, have now reversed dramatically based on exit poll reports from Ohio, Pa, and florida.

The bets now stand at Kerry 71, Bush 28!

Too early to say anything, but those betting pools are well known for reacting to early information faster than any other known predictive tool.

Ahhh, I found it again:

Kerry Takes Lead in Online Futures After Poll Reports (Update1)
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Traders reversed bets that George W. Bush would win the U.S. presidential election after Web sites posted what they said were exit polls showing John Kerry leading in battleground states including Florida and Ohio.

Contracts betting Bush would win plunged to 28.5 from 57 and Kerry futures jumped to 71 from 43, according to Intrade, an electronic exchange based in Dublin known by its Web site TradeSports.com. Winning contracts climb to 100, paying out $10 on Intrade. Losing contracts fall to zero and expire worthless.

``These futures may not predict, but they sure do react,'' said Barry Ritholtz, market strategist for brokerage Maxim Group LLC in New York. ``I thought the Kerry futures were a relatively good bet after seeing those enormous lines. That's never good for an incumbent.''

Internet gossip columnist Matt Drudge posted what he said were early exit poll results from 14 states at about 2:45 p.m. Washington time showing Kerry held a lead over Bush in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Although Drudge took the numbers off his Web site about 20 minutes later, other Internet sites, including Slate.com, have similar figures.


From here:
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...ZKE&refer=home
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Old 2004-11-02, 06:37 PM   #2
Bill
Selling porn allows me to stay in a constant state of Bliss - ain't that a trip!
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 3,914
Holy fuck, go to tradesports.com, the big dublin betting site, you can see it live!

Contract B Qty Bid Ask A Qty Last Vol Chge
PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 456 28.1 29.0 89 28.1 1.2m -24.9
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 1 70.2 71.2 95 71.2 144.4k +24.2


Looks like bush just went up a point, but is still behind by 40 points.
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