Do you think this business is recession resistant?

[Linkster]

The real estate market is having a little trouble all over the country - right now foreclosures are up 48% from this time last year - although it really started around June of last year

As far as what people will spend their money on during a recession - I tend to look at the US census/consumption data - and usually pick something like liquor/beer sales - looking back over the last 10 recession cycles, there has either been no change or an increase in spending on liquor during recessions - although overall in the US it has declined significantly over the last 100 years, the spending sure hasnt changed (adjusted of course)
I figure if the guy can go buy a six pack he can afford the 2.95 for a trial

[Jim]

I would think all this "desperate people will turn to porn" to be true if it didn't have to be paid for with a credit card or checking account...etc. Wouldn't this be the first time that a business model depended on someone having these during a recession to survive?

[stuveltje]

i dont think this bizz is recession resistant...well mmmmmmm holland went to a very bad economy the last years but still most of my sales came from the usa, USA BIGGGGGGGGGG country...holland very smal small country, now as a foreign webmaster getting paid in dollars a recession will suck big time, no use to promoot dollar paying sponsors when the dollar has a value of nothing, sure i have profit from it...cheap hosting, cheap content but sucks in payment when i have to change the dollar in euros, to prevent getting hit by a recession of the usa i would go for the european countries and change my sponsors in euro paying sponsors to get the most payment.

[plateman]

I think things this time around if a hard recessions hits will be different...

years past there was not as much to do for free as there is now...

you got tons of tv channels, pc games, console games, and a ton of free porn samples to look at... plus go rent a movie for 2.00

sure gas and cigs and beer will still sell the same, but I think the porn biz will go down a bit, I hope not...

if people will buy a 6 pack and a 1.00 or 2.95 trial how many will convert to a full monthly? and how long can the pps sponsors continue to pay that if hardly anyone buys a full? or cross sells?

I agree that most people bought to much on there cards the last 5 to 10 years and it's affecting the mostly service econemy that we have today, once you pay your mortage, car payments, food and high ulities bills and 2 to 4 credit cards and 3 to 6 department store cards, there's not much left to spend after all that...

those bills would be considered normal but when most of your cards are close to maxed out, then IMO people don't wanna whip it out as easy as before...

I am not gonna doom and gloom I am gonna try and figure out what porn the upper class want and promote programs that pay in euros

[biztro]

Porn is a special market, people will always be horny no matter what.

[redglow]

I have no idea how americans react to the unstable economy at all, in my eyes americans are strange people anyways (runs and hides, lol)
But the good news is: for most people outside the US, buying anything thats priced in US $ these days are give-away-cheap.....
Maybe the people in ex. Europe will open their wallets and pull out their card more often because of this....

But, guess porn is a one of a kind market, and thinking of the numbers of shows featuring girls way back in 1929 -----> , I would say people need something to just enjoy because they want to, maybe even more when times are not the best.....
That's my hope at least lol

[tigermom]

Originally Posted by redglow

I have no idea how americans react to the unstable economy at all, in my eyes americans are strange people anyways (runs and hides, lol)

No offense to any Americans (some of my best friends are American!!), but I can't understand the way Americans see and use money yet, so no idea about how the recession will effect this market. Over here, when things get tough financially, you cut down on all expenses, and fun things go out the window first. In American, people seem to retain a very comfortable lifestyle even when they are said to be "broke" or even bankrupt, so go figure.

[virgohippy]

Not just booze and cigs; don't forget what happened to National Geographic during the 1930's.

The way $$$ circulates changes all the time but human needs for sex and intimacy have stayed the same for thousands of years.

Getting a computer and plugging into the web is pretty cheap, all things considered.

[SirMoby]

The industry is very recession resistant.

1. With the new bankruptcy laws CC issuers have increased advertising by over 30%. They can now give cards to every one and they know that sooner or later they will get paid.

2. People will spend less money on expensive entertainment and more on cheap stuff. Instead of generating $50 in bar tabs every weekend they'll stay home, drink a few cheap beers and suddenly that $19.99 membership to a porn site really starts to pay off.

I think surfers will want more for the $$$ so bad sites will lose out but sites with content that can keep people interested will continue to do well.

[stuveltje]

i am realy not waiting on a reseccion from the usa, we had one already the last years since those stupid morons invented the euro, all prices doubled here since the euro, also we have alot of dutch companies in usa, so when usa goes bad holland will go bad too, i cant imaging it will not infect the adult industry if it already infect all industries, i already hated when years ago i went from collecting 100 bucks getting 120 euros to 68 euros, i was raley thinking to drop bizz but i didnt gave up, i am not gonna give up 6 years of working, if it will infect the industrie and i think it will i change back to euro sponsors, till now the euro is still stronger then the dollar and it will be that way for the next years specially when usa will go in a recession, one good thing is to buy dollars and wait till the usa go a good way again...oh and i forgot to say. yes a cc is important when concerning a recession and also the value of the dollar is a very big issue.......when the dollar goes down in value, people will have less to spent, and realy they have to make a choise of feeding their fam or spending the money on porn...make your pick...what would you do

[stuveltje]

one thing, dont think the USA cant be hurt, because they can, it happend before and it can happen again....maybe Bush think he can rule the world, but then Bush is a moron, clear fact a recession, lower value of the dollar, all will be more expensieve...also for the bigger earning money making people, but USA is a big country, now tell me that your country has more rich people then poor people then i wont worrie about the bizz, still more then 50% of the porn bizz is earned from getting sales of USA people..........make your own conclusion out of that one...when USA go in a reseccion

[Pornstar Dames]

I reckon to the majority of the paying porn surfers porn falls into the necessities IMO along with tabacco and alcohol

So it should still get enough custom to be recession resistant I guess

[virgohippy]

Originally Posted by Pornstar Dames

I reckon to the majority of the paying porn surfers porn falls into the necessities IMO along with tabacco and alcohol

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs puts sex as a necessity right after protecting yourself from man eating tigresses.

[Jim]

I was really surprised to see that I started this thread back in March.

Now with the mortgage business really taking a shit, the dollar at a new low, oil and metal at a new high and the stock market getting really wacky, it looks like an almost certainty that the US will be going into a recession. Inflation just has to catch up with the falling dollar and we should be there.

I have never been about doom and gloom. But, I really think we are going to get the answer within the next year or two.

Oh yeah...sorry to bump an old thread

[Bobc01]

Any theories on the reason?
Whatever the US economy does effects the UK especially on fuel prices.
The banks have fucked up in a big way on giving credit away to bad debtors which is also the problem here, and like with anything, it always has a knock on effect on everything else.

[Jim]

Of course I blame Bush But the greedy mortgage companies are the fuel to so many people losing their homes.

[NY Jester]

Here is my 2 cents for what its worth.. the adult industry is fed much like many other "vices". In some cases it is an addiction, others its a spontaneous buy but for the most part its ..for lack of a better word..a habit, that not many peple can kick. If the economy should faulter and a recession occur, the market may see a drop initially but within a few weeks Im sure it would get back up to the norm. This country has seen astronomical growth in prices, and NY state especially (all I can really speak of) has the SIN taxes for beer, cigs, some counties have more taxes on gas, etc. Tourism doesnt stop, consumption doesnt stop and smoking, even with the ban on smoking in bars/restaurants/indoors has not decreased..those that want it will find a way to get it, wheher thats car pooling, or buying no-name brand cigs or finding the best bargains, etc. This will probably be the trend in porn as well. You may see an increase in multi-site passes, AVS passes, FREE trials, $1 trials...and the higher cost sites ($35-40 per month) may drop but I dont think that the industry will ever die.

J-

[Bobc01]

I can't comment on bush but i agree on the banks, the UK has some of the highest debts because credit it too easy to get and even easier to default on.

[Ramster]

Jim is correct.

I read a couple of articles yesterday on this and in the early 2000's the Fed Reserve saw a recession coming so they lowered interest rates. Banks all over the US gave mortgages to anyone wanting one. Good for the US economy as it created jobs as the housing industry boomed.

Bad for foreign investors who bought up many of the mortgages. A common practice as mortgages are usually a safe bet/investment. But alas they are not this time as the US banks lent out money to people who could barely afford it and at sub-prime rates to make it worse. Now with the rates rising and the reality of paying a mortgage and all the bills that go along with owning a home people are defaulting and companies are firing CEO's and going out of business.

The US dollar is dying for many reason, one being noone wants to buy/invest in any US businesses or mortgages with such a bad economy right now.

[Jim]

Originally Posted by Ramster

The US dollar is dying for many reason, one being noone wants to buy/invest in any US businesses or mortgages with such a bad economy right now.

But our exports are way up You guys in Canada must be loving the cheap prices.

Either Christmas or the Chinese will be the final nail in the coffin. With mortages so hard to get, house prices are down. People no longer feel safe using their homes as an investment and won't spend as much for Christmas. And, if the Chinese blowhard is right about them moving the 1.3 Trillion from US dollars to Euros, that will hurt.

[Ramster]

Originally Posted by Jim

But our exports are way up You guys in Canada must be loving the cheap prices.

Either Christmas or the Chinese will be the final nail in the coffin. With mortages so hard to get, house prices are down. People no longer feel safe using their homes as an investment and won't spend as much for Christmas. And, if the Chinese blowhard is right about them moving the 1.3 Trillion from US dollars to Euros, that will hurt.

Yes that would hurt bigtime.

Most people are loving the US shopping for sure. Bus loads going across the border every weekend I am reading. But remember I make all my income in US dollars and the exchange was down 10% from Oct 1 to Nov 1 and 25% this year.

[SirMoby]

Originally Posted by Ramster

Yes that would hurt bigtime.

Most people are loving the US shopping for sure. Bus loads going across the border every weekend I am reading. But remember I make all my income in US dollars and the exchange was down 10% from Oct 1 to Nov 1 and 25% this year.

I hate to tell you this. The dollar is going to drop even further. It will keep going until a good economic policy is put in place and then it will slowly glide downward for another 6 months. Only then will it turn upwards again.

It sucks but I didn't vote for him

[Ramster]

Originally Posted by SirMoby

I hate to tell you this. The dollar is going to drop even further. It will keep going until a good economic policy is put in place and then it will slowly glide downward for another 6 months. Only then will it turn upwards again.

It sucks but I didn't vote for him

Around here analysts are saying the same thing unfortunately. But the provincial (state) governments are starting to ask the Feds to lower interest rates here in Canada or do something. It is really hurting Canadian retailers as shoppers are heading south. With the duty it is still way cheaper.

Local shoppers are starting to get frustrated too. A magazine has a price tag on it:
$4.95 US
$6.95 Canada

This is pissing people off since the dollar is almost 10% higher than the US dollar.

[tickler]

Originally Posted by Jim

But our exports are way up You guys in Canada must be loving the cheap prices.

It's taking a long time to see any actual price drops at the CDN retailers though.

Some are only now catching on that they better catch up real fast, or we will start buying a lot of things cross-border.

[Ramster]

Several quick yet good reads on the "panic" hitting banks worldwide:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_meltdown

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cnusecon24.xml

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2007/08/09/paribas.html