Industry Effects Of 1 Million New Webmasters?

[Chop Smith]

Some of us post-2000 folks are stubborn and just won't go away. Based on the amount earned most should have gotten out a long time ago. I compare the failure rate of this business with that of 'mom and pop' restaurants. It is extremely high. I think as many get out as get in. Often, a newbie will register a domain, get a $9.95 host, grab sponsor content and built a gallery. He is overjoyed because The Hun lists the gallery. The bubble burst when he gets one sale and discovers that his $9.95 host is wanting an additional couple of hundred from bandwidth usage. Not many survive this experience and those that do usually get out when they graduate from college.

Boards, especially this one, do not contribute to the over-saturation problem. Actually, most link list and TGP owners serve to police the industry. Face it, sponsors push the affiliates, link list and TGP owners regulate them.

As stated by Amadman, stricter rules, no freehosts, partner accounts makes it more difficult to enter this business. In my opinion, the submitter is an endangered species especially if you consider all of the hosted galleries and free sites provided by sponsors.

[kristian]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Some of us post-2000 folks are stubborn and just won't go away. Based on the amount earned most should have gotten out a long time ago. I compare the failure rate of this business with that of 'mom and pop' restaurants. It is extremely high. I think as many get out as get in. Often, a newbie will register a domain, get a $9.95 host, grab sponsor content and built a gallery. He is overjoyed because The Hun lists the gallery. The bubble burst when he gets one sale and discovers that his $9.95 host is wanting an additional couple of hundred from bandwidth usage. Not many survive this experience and those that do usually get out when they graduate from college.

Boards, especially this one, do not contribute to the over-saturation problem. Actually, most link list and TGP owners serve to police the industry. Face it, sponsors push the affiliates, link list and TGP owners regulate them.

As stated by Amadman, stricter rules, no freehosts, partner accounts makes it more difficult to enter this business. In my opinion, the submitter is an endangered species especially if you consider all of the hosted galleries and free sites provided by sponsors.

I agree with you on the whole.

I don't agree that submitters are an endangered species.

Submitters are both a source of income and content-variety for webmasters.

[Alphawolf]

Originally posted by kristian
You are the classic example of how a newbie in late 2004 can arrive, learn, and begin to prosper. I have no doubt you'll achieve every one of your goals.

Actually, had I not had the peeps of this board to guide me, I'd be fuckin' clueless.

BTW, did you have any knowledge at all on designing websites before you started?

[kristian]

Originally posted by Alphawolf

BTW, did you have any knowledge at all on designing websites before you started?

Well, as you now know, there's designing websites and there's designing adult websites. I built my first site when I was about 22, about 7 years ago. It was for a hotel in llandudno, north wales. Favour for a friend. Did it in my spare time while at uni for a bit of a laugh. Anyway, some other hotels asked me, then a flooring contractor. Put an end to it after the flooring contractor because it was eating up my time. I'm too ashamed to show the sites

[amadman]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Boards, especially this one, do not contribute to the over-saturation problem. Actually, most link list and TGP owners serve to police the industry. Face it, sponsors push the affiliates, link list and TGP owners regulate them.

How true chop!

[Chop Smith]

Originally posted by kristian
II don't agree that submitters are an endangered species.

Submitters are both a source of income and content-variety for webmasters.

Perhaps 'endangered' was a bit strong. Sure there will always be submitters, but most will probably be 'preferred'. In my opinion the dishonest submitters continue to push link lists and TGPs toward partner accounts.

How does submitters a source of income for link list and TGPs? I agree in principle that they offer a content-variety. However, assume that you own a large link list (PR5+) and going to list say 100 free sites per day. Further, assume that there are 100 new hosted free sites available each day. Also, assume that these 100 hosted free sites follow your rules and contain fresh content. Are you going to list, the hosted free sites where you receive all of the revenue share for sign ups or are you going to list the submitters' sites where your receive no income for sign ups?

[SirMoby]

The weak dollar makes this market less appealing to many Europeans then it did BW (before W).

What do you think would happen if Tommy, GG or Shemp entered the business today? Do you think they would fail or do you think they're smart enough and motivated enough to find a way to make money? Maybe it was easier for them to start in 1997 but I bet they'd still make it to the top if they started today.

It's the same way with any maturing business. Profit margins will always narrow and it will always take more effort to make a sale. That's just what happens when businesses mature.

We will survive.

[Alphawolf]

Originally posted by kristian
Well, as you now know, there's designing websites and there's designing adult websites. I built my first site when I was about 22, about 7 years ago. It was for a hotel in llandudno, north wales. Favour for a friend. Did it in my spare time while at uni for a bit of a laugh. Anyway, some other hotels asked me, then a flooring contractor. Put an end to it after the flooring contractor because it was eating up my time. I'm too ashamed to show the sites

Yeah. Actually, there's a difference between being a designer and being a good online sales person.

I see a fair number of good designs that are pretty, but all the advertising is so well blended by the design that the sales effect is lost.

[kristian]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Perhaps 'endangered' was a bit strong. Sure there will always be submitters, but most will probably be 'preferred'. In my opinion the dishonest submitters continue to push link lists and TGPs toward partner accounts.

How does submitters a source of income for link list and TGPs? I agree in principle that they offer a content-variety. However, assume that you own a large link list (PR5+) and going to list say 100 free sites per day. Further, assume that there are 100 new hosted free sites available each day. Also, assume that these 100 hosted free sites follow your rules and contain fresh content. Are you going to list, the hosted free sites where you receive all of the revenue share for sign ups or are you going to list the submitters' sites where your receive no income for sign ups?

I fucking hate disagreeing with you Chop, because I know you're as smart as they come.

You asked me a question, so I'll answer. I agree with what you say in "theory". However, your hypothesis relies on the quality of freehosted sites / galleries being equal to that of prefered submissions. If this were indeed true, I would entirely agree. However, freehosted galleries / sites suffer from being over-used.

Surfer submissions provide the variety that enable tgps / link lists to differentiate themselves. Showing new and exciting content will generate far more revenue, I believe, than populating your sites with stale, over-used content that your competition is also using.

[kristian]

Originally posted by SirMoby
The weak dollar makes this market less appealing to many Europeans then it did BW (before W).

What do you think would happen if Tommy, GG or Shemp entered the business today? Do you think they would fail or do you think they're smart enough and motivated enough to find a way to make money? Maybe it was easier for them to start in 1997 but I bet they'd still make it to the top if they started today.

It's the same way with any maturing business. Profit margins will always narrow and it will always take more effort to make a sale. That's just what happens when businesses mature.

We will survive.

I don't want to take over this thread and reply to everything, but I totally agree with what you say.

I come from a nice country and have a nice roof over my head. One thing I like about this industry is the idea that somewhere, in some less fortunate country, a hard worker can find an industry that will feed him and his family, even now entering 2005.

[GeorgeTH]

Originally posted by Greenguy

...and has been since 2000

Unfortunately sooo true
|usuck|

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Some of us post-2000 folks are stubborn and just won't go away. Based on the amount earned most should have gotten out a long time ago. I compare the failure rate of this business with that of 'mom and pop' restaurants. It is extremely high. I think as many get out as get in.

True: I would be getting out completely IF I had an alternative source of income!
On the other hand I know of a lot of established webmasters who got out this or last year, simply because the earnings weren't what they used to be.

It's getting rather frustrating, and as an overseas webmaster being hit by falling US$ and falling conversions it's a double whammy!

Just lucky that I invested my adultsite earnings in real estate before our local boom started. That made me better money than I earned from porn in recent years.

I would start another business but where I live commercial rents are outragous, so setting up a shop-front business is rather hard, too! About 6 months ago I thought I was actually onto something, but then the supplier pulled the plug just before I was about to sign a lease...

[Chop Smith]

Originally posted by kristian
I fucking hate disagreeing with you Chop....

Kristian, disagreeing is good. We all learn from each others' opinion.

What is it? "Opinions are lke assholes. Everyone has one"

[kristian]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Kristian, disagreeing is good. We all learn from each others' opinion.

What is it? "Opinions are lke assholes. Everyone has one"

I like that one

[SirMoby]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
What is it? "Opinions are lke assholes. Everyone has one"

And some are really nice while others stink

[Linkster]

Its interesting that you post this topic - in the last few days Ive had the TV on and noticed quite a few mainstream ads coming on about starting your own home-based internet biz - of course from the domains they list these are just the affiliate scams to get layers built up under them but if they are making enough to advertise on tv they are obviously making out pretty good.

I dont think the original premise of 1 mill new "adult" wms is a good one but I can see that happening on the non-adult side within two years - and some of that blending/overflowing over to the adult side - and it would be in my interest (if not everyones) to be ready for those newbie WMs with plenty of resources

I do think that anyone who has the gumption and will stick to the grindstone for a year with no exception - AND LISTENS TO ADVICE - has every reason to succeed in this biz and be making 100k at least some time in the second year. Ive seen it happen way too many times - and even recent WMs.

I also have to kind of agree with Tia - although I may be reading something into what she's saying - there are a lot of sources of adult biz income that have nothing whatsoever to do with TGP of LLs and its a lot of money sitting there - and plenty of new surfers every day to work those plans on

[stuveltje]

i one million of newbies pop in, 100 newbies will be left after a year i think, its a shame i saw alot of newbies go pooffff i still cant understand that, why i am still here and they are not???

[graphicsbytia]

Originally posted by Linkster


I also have to kind of agree with Tia - although I may be reading something into what she's saying - there are a lot of sources of adult biz income that have nothing whatsoever to do with TGP of LLs and its a lot of money sitting there - and plenty of new surfers every day to work those plans on

Yes Linkster, that's what I was pointing out, even though I didn't actually come out and say it.

A newbie coming to a resource site looking for information on how to obtain traffic sees almost nothing but advice to use link lists and tgp.

I'm saying that this is something that unfortunately hurts the industry as a whole, because all that newbie traffic not only goes into the pockets of the link list and tgp owners, but it puts a flood of free porn on the market that doesn't pay for itself. In turn that hurts everyone in the long run.

I'm not saying that's a dishonest thing, I'm just saying that resource sites aren't as helpful as they appear to be, because they are most generally run by people looking for newbie traffic for their link lists and tgps.

It's a business, and the purpose of the business isn't to help people.. it's to make money .. period

Let me also say that link lists and tgp can be very profitable if used correctly, but it takes a long time to learn how to do this.

When I take on clients for consultation, I never advise them to use link lists and tgps in the beginning. I advise them to make free sites with a very small amount of content and make a LOT of them. To me this is a very sound way to not only learn how to make sites, but is a very good investment, as any traffic they produce is always theirs free and clear forever.

[KCat]

I joined an already saturated market in 2000 & have watched countless new webmasters come & go since then. This concern is nothing new.

A million new webmasters might try to get into the biz, but it doesn't mean very many will stay or be successful enough to do it full time. Personally, I think the next big shift in adult will be companies merging & pushing the small guys out. 5 years from now I wouldn't be surprised to see less webmasters than we have now.

[pornrex]

I have to agree 100% with KCat.

With the recent push for partner accounts, and more stringent approval criteria, the WM business is getting tougher and tougher, and it will continue to get even more tough as time goes by.

I started in Dec of 2003 and only in the past few months have I figured out and learned enough where I feel comfortable and confident I can achieve my goals.

Unfortunately, due to poor health lately, I just don't have the stamina that I used to have a few short months ago.

[GeorgeTH]

Originally posted by KCat
Personally, I think the next big shift in adult will be companies merging & pushing the small guys out. 5 years from now I wouldn't be surprised to see less webmasters than we have now.

Yep! Unfortunately the trend is favouring the "traffic-haves" who deal among themselves and make it harder and harder for people who don't have the time/money/resources to brake into the market - it's getting the same as in just any big biz...

[Jel]

I also started in Dec 2003. I noticed a few others starting out the same time I did, only a couple of those are still around, yet there are probably millions of new surfers. While I got in late (damn, I even had the opportunity back in about '99 or so) and will probably never make the kind of money people who have been around since that time will, I'm doing OK

I think that as in any other business, most of the time those who are determined will succeed, those who think this is some sort of get rich quick scheme will fall by the wayside.

I'm more concerned with the growing number of cheaters, than the growing number of new webmasters in it as genuine newbies.

There is still an enormous growth to be had in the online industry, and with that naturally comes the porn side of it. I'm just glad I got in, and I'll be here to stay

[Trax]

If 90% of you morons would stop putting

"CLICK HERE TO EARN BIG $$$$$$$$$$"

links on your websites there wouldn't be such a problem.

[Greenguy]

Originally posted by Trax
If 90% of you morons would stop putting

"CLICK HERE TO EARN BIG $$$$$$$$$$"

links on your websites there wouldn't be such a problem.

That's actually quite funny

I'll never understand why webmasters put links to affiliate programs on free sites & galleries.

[Robato]

I'll never understand why webmasters put links to affiliate programs on free sites & galleries.

well I did that for about a month 3 or 4 years ago and had about 200 affiates sign up in about a week.

granted 90% were garbage, but I had a few kick ass affiliates who brought me lots of sales.

[SlickRick]

I'd have to guess-ta-mate that .5 (1/2%) of newbies that get in this industry fail after 3-6 months because they are not making sales, and are tickled pink when they get listed with say the hun. and pull 30K in hits for a few days.

A newbie can make some money if they want to sink cash into their business (at least 2.5- 5K or more) buying traffic, good SE placement, and a lot of homework (Reading and self education).

And not hope they make a mint from their sales. Its not a get rich over night anymore. its long hours all the time.

but thats my opinion.