Feel The August Slowdown?

[ecchi]

Originally Posted by LB

I disagree ... summerslow down for me and other high sale volume webmasters I deal closely with is a statistical fact.

Yes, but the point I was making is it is only a statistical fact if you are shit at webmastering. If you know what you are doing, your methods of getting traffic would not all (or mostly) be "northern hemisphere", and you would also be targeting markets that are good in summer (like Toby mentioned). So you would be making about as much money in the summer as in the winter.

[Ramster]

Originally Posted by ecchi

Yes, but the point I was making is it is only a statistical fact if you are shit at webmastering. If you know what you are doing, your methods of getting traffic would not all (or mostly) be "northern hemisphere", and you would also be targeting markets that are good in summer (like Toby mentioned). So you would be making about as much money in the summer as in the winter.

"shit at webmastering"? Bullshit! Summer slow down is a FACT. Does it effect all of us? No, absolutely not. I for one use to never be effected by the summer slow down as a webmaster. I worked hard year round making free sites and submitting galleries. In the summer you get more exposure at TGPs as some webmasters take time off.

Re Summer Slowdown:
I own several paysites and have a ton of affiliates and I can tell you what LB said is correct. High volume sites will in fact experience a summer slow down. Imagine owning a paysite that gets 50,000 hits a day to it's tours. With so many webmasters pushing traffic that volume does slow in the summer and hence so do sales. This has nothing to do with "shit at webmastering", it has to do with an affiliate program that rely on outside sources for traffic.

This is not true for EVERY paysite of course but the majority it is.

[ecchi]

Originally Posted by Ramster

"shit at webmastering"? Bullshit! Summer slow down is a FACT. Does it effect all of us? No, absolutely not. I for one use to never be effected by the summer slow down as a webmaster. I worked hard year round making free sites and submitting galleries

You cannot claim that what I say is bullshit then in the next sentence provide evidence that what I said was true! The reason you do not feel it is because you know what you are doing. The reason other feel it, is because they don't!

If instead of feeling offended when reading my original post, the people who do feel the summer slowdown thought "Well he may be right, I'll look into it, and if he is right, I'll also look into how I can change my ways", then they would be making more money next year. However the sad fact is that many people who feel the summer slowdown will read my first post and think "Asshole, who does Ecchi think he is calling me a shit webmaster". And those people will go on making the same mistakes, and making less money than they could be making. Then when we have our next recession, and everyone's profits drop, those people's already low profits will drop low enough to send them into bankruptcy. They are out of business and if they are unlucky, out of a home too!

Short version: As a webmaster, the most important tool you have is your brain USE IT!

Originally Posted by Ramster

Imagine owning a paysite that gets 50,000 hits a day to it's tours. With so many webmasters pushing traffic that volume does slow in the summer and hence so do sales. This has nothing to do with "shit at webmastering", it has to do with an affiliate program that rely on outside sources for traffic.

The worst thing you can do when things get bad is blame someone else. If the paysite's only form of traffic is shit webmasters who cannot think further than North America for customers, then it is not the affiliate's fault, and STOP BLAMING THEM. It is the paysite's fault for not thinking up ways to attract more of the better kind of affiliate (preferably without loosing the bad ones at the same time), and for not coming up with other income streams, other than just using affiliates. You prove my point with your last line.

Originally Posted by Ramster

This is not true for EVERY paysite of course

Most important thing for every businessman to know, both sponsors and affiliates (and everyone else in business):
When things get bad, when business is slow, it is NOT the fault of the seasons, it is NOT the fault of any other external influence, it is NOT the fault of surfers or affiliates or any other person you think of. It is the fault of ONE person, and ONE person only - YOU. Even if, for example, your server goes down - it is not your host's fault, it is your fault for using a shit hosting company. Sure some mistakes are unavoidable, but when they happen DON'T blame someone else, accept the blame, learn from it, and move on.

The day you realise that everything relies on you, everything that works well is to your credit, and everything that fucks up is your fault, is the day that you start making your first million.

But if you never learn this, then you had better start studying "chapter twelve law", because one day you are going to need it.

[Ramster]

Wow, your ignorance is in-fucking-credible.

Originally Posted by ecchi

You cannot claim that what I say is bullshit then in the next sentence provide evidence that what I said was true! The reason you do not feel it is because you know what you are doing. The reason other feel it, is because they don't!

NO. I agreed with LB. What I said was as I webmaster I did not feel much of a slow down because I was not making 100 sales a day. When I became a pay site owner with a much higher volume in sales I DID feel a slow down. I'm not talking 30% but each summer there was a slight drop in sales for about 1.5-2 months then it picked back up in late August.

Originally Posted by ecchi

If instead of feeling offended when reading my original post, the people who do feel the summer slowdown thought "Well he may be right, I'll look into it, and if he is right, I'll also look into how I can change my ways", then they would be making more money next year. However the sad fact is that many people who feel the summer slowdown will read my first post and think "Asshole, who does Ecchi think he is calling me a shit webmaster". And those people will go on making the same mistakes, and making less money than they could be making. Then when we have our next recession, and everyone's profits drop, those people's already low profits will drop low enough to send them into bankruptcy. They are out of business and if they are unlucky, out of a home too!

Wasn't offended at all. I just read your post and thought wow. Yes some of the slow down is because as webmasters we vacation too and maybe work less in the spring and summer. Those that keep working steady and work smarter do better.

Originally Posted by ecchi

Short version: As a webmaster, the most important tool you have is your brain USE IT!

The worst thing you can do when things get bad is blame someone else. If the paysite's only form of traffic is shit webmasters who cannot think further than North America for customers, then it is not the affiliate's fault, and STOP BLAMING THEM. It is the paysite's fault for not thinking up ways to attract more of the better kind of affiliate (preferably without loosing the bad ones at the same time), and for not coming up with other income streams, other than just using affiliates. You prove my point with your last line.

WOW. So as a pay site owner with affiliates I need to ask the top review sites on the net, many of the top tgps on the net, all the pornstar sites owners, all the link list owners and other affiliates who do gallery submits to find a way to get non North American customers? Ummmm, ok. Or should I just close my sites to affiliates? I mean if they can't send me GOOD traffic YEAR ROUND then why have them right?

Originally Posted by ecchi

Most important thing for every businessman to know, both sponsors and affiliates (and everyone else in business):
When things get bad, when business is slow, it is NOT the fault of the seasons, it is NOT the fault of any other external influence, it is NOT the fault of surfers or affiliates or any other person you think of. It is the fault of ONE person, and ONE person only - YOU. Even if, for example, your server goes down - it is not your host's fault, it is your fault for using a shit hosting company. Sure some mistakes are unavoidable, but when they happen DON'T blame someone else, accept the blame, learn from it, and move on.

So if I lose my number 1 spot in google it's my fault? (it might have been, but maybe not too... google is a bitch).

Ad so the next time my host goes done I have no one to blame but myself because I use a "shit hosting company"? I guess I better drop my host, MojoHost, and find a new hosting company that never ever ever goes down.

Originally Posted by ecchi

The day you realise that everything relies on you, everything that works well is to your credit, and everything that fucks up is your fault, is the day that you start making your first million.

But if you never learn this, then you had better start studying "chapter twelve law", because one day you are going to need it.

Most of this is true

[LD]

Originally Posted by ecchi

Yes, but the point I was making is it is only a statistical fact if you are shit at webmastering.

That statement makes no sense. I think what you are saying is that the effects of a statistical fact, (or more precisely a statistical trend), can be countered by strategic marketing.

Of course if you make all the money you need to make in a given period of time, it doesn't really matter if part of that period is slower than others.

[ecchi]

Originally Posted by LD

That statement makes no sense. I think what you are saying is that the effects of a statistical fact, (or more precisely a statistical trend), can be countered by strategic marketing.

Well I did not use all those ten dollar words you used, but if you want it in those terms:
Strategic marketing, when used in relation to adult webmastering refers to writing ads for your sponsors (or your own site) and also sourcing traffic for your site. If you write ads only to attract a certain type of person (eg middle age divorced and lonely men) or you source your traffic from only one area (eg North America) then you are throwing away money. Think of WallMart only serving middle age men, and refusing to take money from anyone else! One sign that you are doing this is the summer slowdown, it means you are taking money from people who buy less during the time it is summer in the northern hemisphere, but not from those whose low spending time is elsewhere. If you threw your net wider, people who's 'slack buying period' was some other time of year would counteract the summer slowdown effect. It would also mean you would be making more money overall (both in the good and bad months).

To put it mathematically - If there is a noticeable difference between your best month and your worst month then:
Money you should be earning in a year = money you do earn in a year X (money you earn in your best month / money you earn in your worst month)

Or in other words saying "the effects of a statistical fact, (or more precisely a statistical trend), can be countered by strategic marketing" is the business school graduates way of saying "if you are not a newbie and you are still experiencing a summer slowdown then you are shit at webmastering".

I think my version was more succinct.

[LB]

Originally Posted by ecchi

Well I did not use all those ten dollar words you used, but if you want it in those terms:
Strategic marketing, when used in relation to adult webmastering refers to writing ads for your sponsors (or your own site) and also sourcing traffic for your site. If you write ads only to attract a certain type of person (eg middle age divorced and lonely men) or you source your traffic from only one area (eg North America) then you are throwing away money. Think of WallMart only serving middle age men, and refusing to take money from anyone else! One sign that you are doing this is the summer slowdown, it means you are taking money from people who buy less during the time it is summer in the northern hemisphere, but not from those whose low spending time is elsewhere. If you threw your net wider, people who's 'slack buying period' was some other time of year would counteract the summer slowdown effect. It would also mean you would be making more money overall (both in the good and bad months).

To put it mathematically - If there is a noticeable difference between your best month and your worst month then:
Money you should be earning in a year = money you do earn in a year X (money you earn in your best month / money you earn in your worst month)

Or in other words saying "the effects of a statistical fact, (or more precisely a statistical trend), can be countered by strategic marketing" is the business school graduates way of saying "if you are not a newbie and you are still experiencing a summer slowdown then you are shit at webmastering".

I think my version was more succinct.

If you wish to understand the maths behind ratios and deviations from a statictical trend then here is some reading for you...

http://www.buildinganempire.com/poisson2.html

[Senator_x]

Originally Posted by LB

If you wish to understand the maths behind ratios and deviations from a statictical trend then here is some reading for you...

http://www.buildinganempire.com/poisson2.html

Ran a few scenarios using the Poisson Distribution.
http://www.anesi.com/poisson.htm

Im actually on target for the year compared to my past years but August seems way down.

[LB]

Originally Posted by ecchi

Yes, but the point I was making is it is only a statistical fact if you are shit at webmastering. If you know what you are doing, your methods of getting traffic would not all (or mostly) be "northern hemisphere", and you would also be targeting markets that are good in summer (like Toby mentioned). So you would be making about as much money in the summer as in the winter.

The vast majority of signups still come from the US, so unless you are targeting a different market entirely you are going to be at the mercy of your market to at least some extent.

Suggesting that webmasters can target other markets or use different methods to increase profits during the summer period is all fine and dandy, but it doesn't disprove the existance of summer slowdown in the North American market.

Also calling webmasters who are exposed to the US market and suffer some form of slowdown during summer ... 'shit at webmastering' is provocative and isn't all that helpful. If you have some methods you employ to avoid the summer slowdown effect then by all means share with the rest of us